Equity markets fell this week after digesting a wide range of economic factors. Midweek, equities were up
after taking a more hawkish Fed as a positive sign for markets. As expected, the Fed announced a much faster
rate of taper than originally stated. In addition, the most recent dot plot now shows that the Fed anticipates
three quarter point rate hikes next year. Markets reacted favorably to the Fed taking on inflation initially,
but by the end of the week, fears related to the ongoing pandemic appeared to win out, leading to a drop in
equities. The most recent strain of COVID-19 seems to be causing substantial fear in markets, though there is
still little in the way of data to determine a probabilistic impact of the new strain. While economic progress
continues its long slog toward recovery, residual effects of the pandemic lockdowns continue to drag on the
global economy. While shortages of everything from microprocessors to natural gas appear to be slowly
improving, supply chains remain the number one obstacle to a more robust recovery. Overall, markets have
performed well, but headwinds continue to fiercely resist further progress.
Overseas, developed markets outperformed emerging markets, with both indices returning negative performance.
European indices were negative, while Japanese markets returned positive performance. Improving prospects
against the pandemic as well as improved prospects for economic recovery should continue to help lift markets
globally over time, but macroeconomic factors such as inflation and supply shortages threaten markets
everywhere.
Equity markets were negative this week as investors continue to assess the state of the global economy. While
fears concerning global stability and health overall appear to be in decline overall, the recent volatility
serves as a great reminder of why it is so important to remain committed to a long-term plan and maintain a
well-diversified portfolio. When stocks struggle to gain traction, other asset classes such as gold, REITs,
and US Treasury bonds can prove to be more stable. Flashy news headlines can make it tempting to make
knee-jerk decisions, but sticking to a strategy and maintaining a portfolio consistent with your goals and
risk tolerance can lead to smoother returns and a better probability for long-term success.
Chart of the Week
Housing starts increased at a substantial rate in November, highlighting the growing need for new
homes in the United States. Rising home prices coupled with low rates and a housing shortage has increased the
need for new homes, creating a boon for home builders.
Market Update
Equities
Broad market equity indices finished the week down with major large cap indices underperforming small cap.
Economic data has been mostly encouraging, but the global recovery still has a long way to go to recover from
COVID-19 lockdowns.
S&P sectors were mixed this week. Healthcare and real estate outperformed, returning 2.45% and 1.61%
respectively. Consumer discretionary and energy underperformed, posting -4.30% and -5.09% respectively. Energy
has the lead in 2021 with a 42.83% return.
Commodities
Oil fell this week even as crude oil inventories shrunk. Energy markets have been highly volatile in the
COVID era, but it appears that higher oil prices may be more of the norm given recent market fundamentals.
Demand is still down compared to early 2020, but as global economies are continuing to improve, oil
consumption is recovering rapidly. On the supply side, operating oil rigs are still well under early 2020
numbers, but trending upwards. In addition to supply and demand, a volatile dollar is likely to have a large
impact on commodity prices.
A new dimension has emerged recently in energy markets. China recently
has been unable to produce the energy needed to keep its power grid running without interruption.
Additionally, Europe and other regions have struggled to acquire enough supply of natural gas to meet
anticipated heating needs for winter. Many analysts are anticipating high and possibly rising natural gas
prices as countries desperately try to fill shortfalls before the weather turns too cold. Additionally,
concerns over manufacturing operations in China could remain for some time.
Gold rose this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Gold is a common “safe haven” asset, typically rising
during times of market stress. Focus for gold has shifted again to include not just global macroeconomics
surrounding COVID-19 damage and recovery efforts, but also inflation and its possible impact on U.S. dollar
value.
Bonds
Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell this week from 1.4837 to 1.4021 while traditional bond indices rose.
Treasury yield movements reflect general risk outlook, and tend to track overall investor sentiment. Expected
increases in future inflation risk have helped elevate yields since pandemic era lows in rates. Treasury
yields will continue to be a focus as analysts watch for signs of changing market conditions.
High-yield bonds rose this week as spreads loosened. High-yield bonds are likely to have stabilized for the
short term as the Fed has adopted a remarkably accommodative monetary stance and major economic risk factors
subside, likely helping stabilize volatility.
A headwind could be on the horizon for fixed income assets, as the Fed has begun tapering its asset purchases
which could raise yields. Tapering will undoubtedly have an impact on yields, but the degree of impact is
uncertain. In addition to asset tapering, the Fed is currently projecting it will be raising interest rates
three times in 2022, adding additional price risk to fixed income assets.
Lesson to be Learned
The desire to perform all the time is usually a barrier to performing over time.”
–Robert Olstein
StockPointDigital Indicators
StockPointDigital has two simple indicators we share that help you see how the economy is doing (we call this the
Recession Probability Index, or RPI), as well as if the US Stock Market is strong (bull) or weak (bear).
In a nutshell, we want the RPI to be low on a scale of 1 to 100. For the US Equity Bull/Bear indicator, we
want it to read at least 66.67% bullish. When those two things occur, our research shows market performance is
typically stronger, with less volatility.
The Recession Probability Index (RPI) has a current reading of 27.58, forecasting a lower potential for an
economic contraction (warning of recession risk). The Bull/Bear indicator is currently 100% bullish, meaning
the indicator shows there is a slightly higher than average likelihood of stock market increases in the near
term (within the next 18 months).
It can be easy to become distracted from our long-term goals and chase returns when markets are
volatile and uncertain. It is because of the allure of these distractions that having a plan and remaining
disciplined is mission critical for long term success. Focusing on the long-run can help minimize the negative
impact emotions can have on your portfolio and increase your chances for success over time.
The Week Ahead
This week will have a handful of impactful economic indicators heading into Christmas. We will see updates to
the PCE deflator index, durable goods orders, and personal spending and income indicators.
More to come soon. Stay tuned.