Markets fell marginally again this week as the first wave of economic reopenings took place. Several U.S.
states are permitting non-essential businesses to open in spite of the continuing Covid-19 threat. Equities
finished the week mixed after spending the majority of the week in the green. Prices dropped Friday after
President Trump discussed the punitive tariffs against familiar target China for misleading the world about
the Covid-19 pandemic. Sectors finished mixed this week. For the second week Energy led the S&P sectors,
finishing ahead of communications and materials to round out the strongest sectors. Analysts will likely
continue to observe production and consumption adjustments made by market participants closely after shutdowns
ground much of economic activity to a halt. Tensions with China will also remain in focus. Unemployment is
likely to remain elevated for several more weeks, but economic activity is likely to begin a slow and steady
return to normal in the coming weeks and months. Infection data is becoming more accurate as testing becomes
more widely disseminated, helping to better assess economic options.
Overseas, markets performed better than U.S. indices. European countries have begun eyeing reopening their
economies similarly to the U.S., likely encouraging investors. On Friday, most European indices were closed
for trading for the May Day holiday, sparing them from the negative tariff news. All major European indices
returned positive results. Japanese equities returned positive performance as well, as investors seem to be
encouraged by developments surrounding the pandemic. After doing better than most developed countries
initially, Japan is now starting to experience more widespread outbreaks, prompting an oStockPointDigitalcial state
of emergency. Japan has the highest percentage of “at risk” population in the world, making containment
absolutely critical.
Markets were mixed this week, with major equity indices bringing very different returns. Fears concerning
global stability and health are an unexpected factor in asset values, and the recent volatility serves as a
great reminder of why it is so important to remain committed to a long-term plan and maintain a
well-diversified portfolio. When stocks were struggling to gain traction last month, other asset classes such
as gold, REITs, and US Treasury bonds proved to be more stable. Flashy news headlines can make it tempting to
make knee-jerk decisions, but sticking to a strategy and maintaining a portfolio consistent with your goals
and risk tolerance can lead to smoother returns and a better probability for long-term success.
Chart of the Week
BBB rated debt recovered dramatically during April, returning an impressive 6.4% gain. The move was
precipitated by the Federal Reserve, which committed to buying BBB rated bonds even if they fall to junk
status.
Market Update
Equities
Broad market equity indices finished the week mixed, with major large cap indices underperforming small cap.
The return of tariff fears have returned to markets, prompting a significant downswing in prices late in the
week. Economic data is still predominantly negative, but the first steps needed to see leveling out are being
taken, as multiple U.S. states have reopened their economies and more are poised to do the same this
month.S&P sectors returned mixed results this week, as broad market movements showed investors showing
favoritism among the various sectors. For the second consecutive week, energy and communications led the best
performing sectors returning 2.94% and 2.04% respectively. Utilities and healthcare performed the worst,
posting -4.28% and -2.61% respectively. Technology leads the pack so far YTD, returning -3.07% in 2020.
Commodities
Commodities rebounded this week, driven by large gains in oil. Oil markets have been highly volatile, with
investors focusing on output and consumption concerns. Global fears surrounding the virus outbreak have stoked
demand concerns, as a significant impact on energy demand is expected as a result. Demand is likely to recover
slowly, as countries around the globe have begun re-opening their economies. The supply side of the equation
is likely to face reductions in output, as lack of storage will continue to be a problem.Gold fell this week
as markets reacted to information surrounding Covid-19 and global trade. Gold is a common “safe haven” asset,
typically rising during times of market stress. Focus for gold has shifted to global macroeconomics and public
health concerns. Weakening real currency values resulting from massive stimulus measures may further support
gold prices.
Bonds
Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose from 0.60% to 0.61% while traditional bond indices fell. Treasury yields
rose as the efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19 appear to be yielding results and the economy is set to
gradually reopen. Treasury yields will continue to be a focus as analysts watch for signs of changing market
conditions.High-yield bonds rose slightly again this week, casing spreads to tighten. High-yield bonds are
likely to remain volatile in the short to intermediate term as the Fed has adopted a remarkably accommodative
monetary stance and investors flee virus risk factors, likely driving increased volatility.
Lesson to be Learned
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This
means ... that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal,
objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money's worth for his
purchase."
-Ben GrahamIt
It can be easy to become distracted from our long-term goals and chase returns when markets are volatile and
uncertain. It is because of the allure of these distractions that having a plan and remaining disciplined is
mission critical for long term success. Focusing on the long-run can help minimize the negative impact
emotions can have on your portfolio and increase your chances for success over time.
StockPointDigital Indicators
StockPointDigital has two simple indicators we share that help you see how the economy is doing (we call this the
Recession Probability Index, or RPI), as well as if the US Stock Market is strong (bull) or weak (bear).
In a nutshell, we want the RPI to be low on the scale of 1 to 100. For the US Equity Bull/Bear indicator, we
want it to read least 66.67% bullish. When those two things occur, our research shows market performance is
strongest and least volatile.The Recession Probability Index (RPI) has a current reading of 40.23, forecasting
further economic growth and not warning of a recession at this time. However, with the unique economic
circumstances caused by COVID-19, many economic indicators are expected to turn more negative as data is
updated throughout the next month, which will increase the probability for a recession from the current
reading. The Bull/Bear indicator is currently 0% bullish – 100% bearish, meaning the indicator shows there is
a slightly higher than average likelihood of stock market decreases in the near term (within the next 18
months).
The Week Ahead
Markets will get their first full glimpse of the damage of the economic shutdown in the U.S. this week, as
non-farm payrolls and unemployment percentages will be released on Friday. This data will include only April
data, so all of the included stats will have been tabulated with the full brunt of the economic shutdown in
effect.More to come soon. Stay tuned.